The 2011 PCI European Polyester Industry Conference
The Hotel Concorde Berlin, Germany
30 Sep - 1 Oct
2011
PCI's leading polyester & raw materials conference for Europe
We are pleased to announce that PCI is holding its 2011 European Polyester Industry Conference at The Concorde Hotel, Berlin on Saturday 1 October 2011. Now in its 19th year, PCIs leading European conference provides a specific industry forum for the analysis and debate of current events and attempts to assess their impact on the European and wider regional markets.
European polyester has seen real strength over the last year but is that sustainable and what do 2012 and 2013 hold as new builds come on line and an import threat looms?
After very tight PTA markets in the last year and associated margin increases in Asia, a lengthening market looms. How will this impact European paraxylene pricing compared to Asia?
Refining economics remain in the doldrums. European gasoline length increases as 'dieselisation' continues across the region and gasoline exports to the US market decline with less demand and more ethanol addition being mandated. Integrated economics back to refining are ever more important as the PTA cycle turns from 2013.
Paraxylene is anticipated to go structurally short in Europe from 2012. New PTA investments in Portugal and Brazil will impact the Atlantic Basin trade dynamics. Where will the European imports come from and are consumers strong enough to pay premiums to bid material away from other regions? In Asia, paraxylene will continue to tighten through the PTA transition. Will there be sufficient PX capacity to meet the demand or is the pinch point in the availability of refining feedstocks?
Despite more crude oil production leading to an increase in Middle Eastern MEG production MEG market prices held up well till mid summer due to plant outages elsewhere. Cuts in Chinese credit are impacting MEG demand but the impact is as yet unclear. Asia is still expected to set the price floor as this region's ethylene cost will set the Asian MEG floor price but prices may not be as low as initially thought as the surplus might itself not be as severe as expected on paper for the period 2011-2013. Post 2014, depending on the ability of Chinese technology providers to get their technology working,may be totally different with sizeable surpluses once more.
2012 looks set to be a year of transition for European PTA, following the robust demand in 2011 and a reduction in PET imports. How will the European PTA industry deal with the new capacity? Are the feedstocks there? Do end users have the strength to repel PET imports? How will the overcapacity in Asia be dealt with? Can Europe see a flood of Asian PTA/PET from mid 2012? This together with new producers looming in the Americas could materially change the trade patterns in PTA.
With PET imports into Europe still subdued and new builds announced, does Europe have the strength to repel in looming imports? As Asian PTA margins are forecast to return to materially lower levels will this once again stimulate some demand or could a crisis in confidence in Asia/China derail progress of 2011?
Cotton at an all time high has stimulated demand in the last year. As numbers fall back in 2011 what are the implications for 2012 and beyond? Will numbers return to historical norms or are current prices here to stay? How will this impact Asian polyester demand?
Will Middle Eastern PET once again become a major source for Europe as new builds in Turkey and Egypt loom; where will the raw materials come from to feed this supply?
China, the power house of polyester, looks slightly more fragile as tighter monetary policies come into force and a desire to curb inflation impacts consumer demand. What is China’s near term polyester future and how will that impact the other regions?
These are just some of the questions PCI will set out to answer at its 19th European Polyester Industry Conference in Berlin. This annual event provides a timely pre-EPCA opportunity for leading industry participants to meet, interact and discuss the key issues with industry colleagues and PCI’s leading team of specialist consultants.
Presentations will include:
Paraxylene: Does scarce mean expensive?
Global energy market outlook and impact on the polyester industry dynamics
How scarce will Asian PX become and what are the implications?
Is the issue insufficient capacity or insufficient feedstock?
Will regional prices diverge?
Marginal production economics explored
How will the Atlantic Basin trade flows evolve with new PTA capacity in Europe & the Americas?
How competitive is Middle East PX and will it go East or West?
Gordon Haire / PCI Xylenes & Polyesters
Has PTA peaked in Asia and what happens to European supply as Asia moves into oversupply?
2012: A year of transition for PTA
Was early 2011 the peak for Asian PTA? What is the legacy?
European oversupply in 2012: Is it real?
South American PTA: The impact on Europe
Where are the PTA opportunities post-2012?
Will European PX tightness prevent PTA volume development?
Can European PTA find viable export markets?
Will Middle East PET eventually undermine European PTA?
How will East European PTA develop?
Philip Marshall / PCI Xylenes & Polyesters
MEG: Another ride off into the sunset? Any black clouds?
Short-term shortfalls
Impact of EO growth on glycols
Any remedies to tighter glycols?
Small buyers caught between a rock and a hard place
Green MEG, black MEG, normal MEG: a plethora of choices?
Any answers here?
Paul Clarke / PCI Xylenes & Polyesters
The feedstock challenge for polyesters: if it's not PTA, it's MEG; if it's not MEG, it's PX but we'll survive!
Polyester has recovery post 2008-09 global financial crisis
Asia leads the way but major obstacles remain
New PTA capacities aid polyester growth but is the PX there?
MEG tightness - just two years after the MEG nightmare, what happened?
Can China grow as expected?
...don't forget India, Taiwan, Korea, Pakistan, Thailand and Indonesia...
The pie's bigger: out with the zero-sum game fallacy!
Polyester prospects into 2014 - how hard will it be?
Salmon Lee / PCI Xylenes & Polyesters
The impact of cotton pricing and sustainability issues on polyester fibres
Cotton: an agricultural commodity subject to cyclical pricing?
Factors driving cotton and polyester fibre production to 2015
Sustainability issues in polyester: the importance of recycling in polyester fibre production and demand
Fibre prices increases: has there been an impact on consumer demand at retail?
Bruna Angel / PCI Fibres
PET: Has 2011 been a good year for the industry?
Who is investing and where?
The growth of capacity imbalances
The future for global trade
The future for PET in Europe?
PET sustainability
David Swift / PCI PET Packaging, Resin & Recycling
Sustainability in European bi-oriented polyester film markets
BOPET film supplier options in the European market and a discussion of key market demand drivers
The key structural changes facing the BOPET film industry and their subsequent impact on suppliers and buyers. Is the European BOPET film industry sustainable?
The environmental position of BOPET films compared with other oil-based and emerging bio-based films
The impact of raw materials on BOPET films
Simon King / PCI Films
Polyester Chain Seminar: Friday 30 September 2011
Following the positive feedback from last year, we will once again hold a short 1-1.5 hour tutorial, on the evening before our main conference, for anyone wishing to gain a better understanding of the polyester chain and how the different products in the chain affect and influence each other.
Places are restricted to a maximum of 20 people and are free-of-charge to anyone registered for the main conference. If you would like to attend, please indicate when registering for the Saturday conference.
REGISTRATION DETAILS
Date
Friday 30 September - Saturday 1 October 2011
Venue
Hotel Concorde Berlin, Germany
Registration Fee
€1,095 which includes conference admission on Saturday 1 October, conference documentation, electronic copy of presentations available as downloads from our website, buffet breakfast, refreshments and lunch on 1 October. Also included is admission to the Polyester Chain Seminar on Friday 30 September if requested.
For 3 or more attendees group discounts are available so contact us for more details.
How to Register
Clients: Register Here
Non Clients: Please contact Burlett Hutchins at
E-mail: bhutchins@thepcigroup.com
Fax: +44 1483 302267
Cancellation Policy
All cancellations must be made in writing before 1 September 2011 and will be subject to a 20% administration fee. Cancellations after 1 September 2011 cannot be refunded but substitutions can be made at any time free-of-charge.
Note: The organisers reserve the right to change the venue or programme at any time.